M A S T E R P L A N
S
ection 2A
viation Activity FORECASTS
As discussed in the Preface, an update of the Master Plan for Athens-Ben Epps Airport was initiated in October of 1997. However, seven months into the process, work was delayed at the direction of Airport representatives while other analyses related to but outside of the master planning process were conducted. In June of 2001, work was resumed on the Master Plan project at the request of the Airport Director.
A product of the seven-month effort initiated in 1997 was the "Master Plan Update Aviation Activity Forecasts Technical Paper". This document was intended to become a section of the overall Master Plan Update report and is organized into four significant subsections: forecast assumptions, socioeconomics, historic activity, and activity forecasts. As discussed in the opening of the Technical Paper, several sources of data were reviewed during the formulation of the Master Plan Update Aviation Activity Forecasts, including: FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (TAFs) for Athens-Ben Epps Airport and the Nation; FAA National Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 1997-2008; the Georgia Statewide System Plan; the 1995 Athens-Ben Epps Airport Master Plan Update. The Technical Paper also considers past growth trends of various aviation demand elements together with socioeconomic factors and utilizes a variety of statistical techniques to extend forecasts by others and identified trends into the future. In order to document this comprehensive 1997 work effort, yet minimize confusion between the previously approved forecasts and the updated forecasts to be discussed below, the Master Plan Update Aviation Activity Forecasts Technical Paper has been included as Appendix I.
Since the previous forecasts were prepared in December of 1997 and approved by the FAA, the initial step in recommencing the Master Plan Update was to compare these forecasts with both the actual activity levels experienced by the Airport over the past three years and with FAA projections for 2000 through 2015. This comparison of the previous Master Plan Update forecasts with Airport statistics and projections as reported by the FAA TAF on June 21, 2001, is presented in Table 2-1. As indicated by this table, significant discrepancies were identified for enplanements and operations. Beginning in 1999 and continuing through 2015, the differential in enplanements grows increasingly more significant, as is presented in 2-1. Although the differentials in operations decrease over time, the Percent Difference column in this table reveals that these differentials are significant at times, notably so in the near-term.
Due to the trends revealed in Table 2-1, an investigation was conducted to examine the potential factors that could be contributing to the significant increase in operations (26 percent higher in 1999 than what was projected) and the coinciding decrease in enplanements. Through discussions with the Airport Director, it was determined that the regional economy, expansion of the Metropolitan Area of Atlanta and its proximity to Athens, and the presence of two charter companies on the field, have all contributed to the growth of general aviation operations. It is important to note, that the recent no growth/declining trend in air carrier, air taxi/commuter, and military operations is being offset by significant increases in general aviation activity. In addition, a drop in enplanements was experienced at the Airport since the approval of the 1997 forecasts. Although this drop was attributed to the loss of one air carrier flight, the number of overall air carrier flights has restabilized, resulting in a rebound in enplanement levels.
Following a discussion of the discrepancies presented above in which both Airport and FAA representatives were involved, it was concluded that at an update to the December 1997 forecasts would be required. However, in order to keep both the effort expended and the review/approval periods to a minimum, it was agreed that the adjusted forecasts would fall within 10 percent of the current TAF for the outer year, 2015. Table 2-2 presents these updated forecasts.